XRP’s market structure is flashing warning signs reminiscent of February 2022, according to leading on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. With the token now trading near $1.93 after a sharp rally and subsequent pullback, short-term buyers have piled in below the cost basis of longer-term holders, leaving a significant portion of the supply underwater. This precarious setup, characterized by a top-heavy distribution, could trigger psychological sell pressure at key levels like $2, potentially capping upside until the excess supply is absorbed.
Glassnode’s Key Insights on XRP’s Cost-Basis Shift
Glassnode’s latest analysis reveals a striking parallel to historical patterns, particularly the volatile round-trip in February 2022 when XRP surged from $0.60 to $0.88 before a macro-driven retracement. By charting “realized price by age,” the firm illustrates how cohorts of holders acquired XRP at different price points over time. Short-term buyers, those holding for 1 week to 1 month, have aggressively accumulated below the 6–12 month cohort’s average cost basis. Meanwhile, older holders from earlier cycles remain deeply underwater, creating a gap that fosters fragility.
This structure mirrors February 2022, where similar dynamics led to capitulation among mid-term holders. Historical retests of the $2 level have generated between $0.5 billion and $1.2 billion in weekly realized losses as these holders offload into breakeven zones. Glassnode warns that until this supply is fully absorbed by fresh demand, rallies will face stiff resistance, potentially leading to choppy price action or deeper corrections.
Profitability Metrics Hit Multi-Month Lows
Despite XRP’s impressive climb—nearly four times higher than its $0.53 price in November 2024—only 58.5% of the circulating supply is currently in profit, the lowest level since that period. This leaves a staggering 41.5% of the total supply, roughly 26.5 billion XRP, at a loss even at prices around $2.15. The data underscores a market dominated by late-entry investors who bought near peaks above $3, exposing them to heightened downside risk.
Glassnode’s Realized Loss/Profit Ratio has been declining steadily since January 2025, signaling waning confidence as losses mount and profit-taking fades. This top-heavy configuration, with 62.8% of the realized cap now held by investors less than six months old, points to speculative retail inflows rather than sustained long-term conviction. Such imbalances often precede accelerated selling, especially amid broader market pressures like Bitcoin’s dip below $90,000 and Ethereum’s slide under $3,000.
Technical Indicators Confirm Weakening Momentum
XRP’s price chart reinforces the on-chain fragility. Trading below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages—all curling downward—the token shows clear trend deterioration. Recent bounces from key support around $2.10 have weakened, with volume spikes on downswings indicating ongoing distribution. Open interest in XRP futures has plummeted from $10 billion to $3.8 billion, reflecting reduced speculative demand and trader caution.
Long-term holders who accumulated below $1 are now realizing profits at a 240% increased rate, up from $65 million daily to $220 million since September. While this shakes out weak hands and may support long-term positioning, it adds immediate supply pressure. XRP has shed 40% from its July 2025 high of $3.66 and 12% over the past six months, trading sideways in a tight range that disappoints momentum traders.
- Key Support Zones: $2.10 horizontal level, repeatedly tested with diminishing bounces.
- Resistance Overhead: Breakeven for mid-term cohorts near $2–$2.50, where capitulation historically peaks.
- Moving Average Breakdown: Below all major MAs, signaling bearish control.
- Volume Profile: Elevated selling on retracements, low buy-side conviction.
Macro Backdrop Amplifies Risks
The broader crypto market provides little relief. Global rate volatility, geopolitical tensions, and tightening dollar liquidity are driving capital out of speculative assets. Bitcoin and Ethereum’s recent 4%+ drops, coupled with rumors of BlackRock offloading $650 million in BTC and ETH to Coinbase Prime, have cascaded into altcoins like XRP. Ethereum, BNB, Solana, and Cardano have all posted massive losses amid liquidations.
XRP’s retail-driven surge since the 2022 cycle low—marked by a 490% jump in quarterly active addresses versus Bitcoin’s 10%—highlights its role as a speculative barometer. However, with capital inflows stalling since late February 2025 and realized cap growth concentrated in recent months, the rally appears to have reached saturation. Glassnode’s multi-asset explorer dashboard further contextualizes this, showing synchronized fragility across sectors.
Potential Catalysts: ETFs and Institutional Inflows
Not all signals are bearish. Institutional interest is rising, with spot XRP ETFs launching in November 2025 from Franklin Templeton, Bitwise, 21Shares, and CoinShares. Canary Capital’s XRPC ETF has already attracted $278 million in early inflows, per SoSoValue data. These products could provide a demand backstop, absorbing underwater supply and stabilizing the market.
Additionally, ongoing ecosystem developments around Ripple’s token utility may draw more conviction-based buying. If ETF inflows accelerate and macro conditions ease, XRP could retest higher levels. Yet, analysts caution that without strong demand to digest the top-heavy structure, any upside remains vulnerable to panic selling from loss-positioned holders.
Historical Parallels and What to Watch
Looking back to February 2022, XRP’s “first seen since” cost-basis configuration preceded a swift reversal. Realized cap doubled rapidly then, much like the recent $30 billion influx, only for momentum to fade. Today, with daily active addresses still elevated but profit realization slipping, history may rhyme unless absorption occurs.
Traders should monitor:
- Supply in profit rebounding above 65% for bullish confirmation.
- Realized losses peaking and declining, indicating capitulation.
- ETF inflow data for sustained institutional support.
- Bitcoin stabilization above $90,000 to lift altcoin sentiment.
In summary, Glassnode’s data paints XRP’s market as structurally fragile, echoing 2022 vulnerabilities with 41.5% of supply underwater at $1.93–$2.15 levels. While ETF launches offer hope, the top-heavy holder base risks intensified sell pressure until cleared. Investors must navigate this with caution, prioritizing risk management amid potential for both deeper corrections and eventual stabilization. The key takeaway: Absorption of loss cohorts will dictate whether XRP breaks free or repeats past cycles.
